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Solar activity reached moderate levels with two M class flares
earlier this week.  The first flares occurred on January 21 in
regions 4345 and 4349.  Region 4345 continued to show development,
as well as region 4342.  Region 4341 was a main contributor to the C
level activity of the day, including a larger C class flare on
January 21. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery.  Solar activity is likely to be at moderate, R1
to R2, or minor to moderate, levels, with a slight chance for X
class flares, R3 or strong, on January 24, primarily due to the
magnetic potential of Regions 4341, 4342 and 4345.  Solar wind
parameters reflected Coronal Mass Ejection influence transitioning
into a high speed stream paradigm, with the interplanetary magnetic
field returned to largely enhanced background levels. Solar wind
speeds gradually decreased from about 800 km/s to 575 km/s at the
end of the day. Phi angle remained in the positive solar sector away
from the Sun, indicating the coronal hole high speed stream dominant
influence over the period. Solar wind parameters near Earth are
expected to be dominated by the CH HSS conditions in the next three
days.  Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 or Minor
geomagnetic storm levels on January 29 and unsettled to active
levels on January 27 and 28, then 30 and 31, and then from February
4 to 11.  All enhancements in activity are due to the anticipated
influence of multiple, recurrent Coronal Hole High Speed Streams.
The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be mostly quiet.
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earths
Ionosphere, January 22, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH, A combination
of favorable circumstances contributed to the northern lights on the
night of January 19 and 20 becoming one of the main stories in the
media in the following days. In particular, much of Europe enjoyed
very favorable weather conditions thanks to an extensive high
pressure system, the center of which slowly moved southward from
Russia across Ukraine, the Black Sea, and Turkey to the Middle East.
In its western part, a dry, cold wind blew from the south. As a
result, the aurora borealis was observed as far south as southern
Europe, for example in southern France, northern Italy, and Romania.
Before the disturbance, a sunspot group AR4341, had been gradually
growing. Its magnetic configuration became increasingly complex,
while to the west and south of it lay the extensive coronal hole No.
15. Then, in a position near the center of the solar disk, very
favorable for the Earth to be hit by solar wind, a proton flare with
the highest concentration and energy of protons in the last 36 years
was observed. The beginning of the phenomenon was registered on
January 18 at 1727 UT, with a maximum at 1809 UT and an end at 1851
UT.  A very fast particle ejection, CME, began on January 18 at 1748
UT, lasted 5 hours, while was best observed around 1812 UT. The
particle flow velocity was extreme, ranging from 2900 up to 3500
km/s.  Therefore, the geomagnetic disturbance did not begin two to
three days after the flare, as is usual, but the very next day,
January 19. The aurora borealis was visible for most of the night
from January 19 to 20, and even at mid latitudes it had not only the
usual red color, but also, exceptionally, green.  The G4 geomagnetic
disturbance lasted 15 hours and was followed by a G3 disturbance
lasting 18 hours. The occurrence of numerous inhomogeneities in the
ionosphere caused large and variable attenuation. On the other hand,
the values of the critical frequencies of the F2 ionospheric layer
during the daytime in mid latitudes on January 19 and 20 were above
average. The decline, typical for the end of the disruption, did not
occur until January 21.  Solar activity at the end of December
indicated that the maximum of the eleven year cycle is not yet over
and will extend from 2024 to 2025 into part of 2026. During the rest
of January, solar activity will decline only very slowly, with a
more significant decline occurring after the beginning of February,
when another longer geomagnetic disturbance can be expected.  The
Predicted Planetary A Index for January 24 to 30 is 5, 5, 5, 10, 15,
25, and 12, with a mean of 11.  Predicted Planetary K Index is 2, 2,
2, 3,4, 5, and 4, with a mean of 3.14.  10.7 centimeter flux is 180,
175, 170, 165, 160, 165, and 165, with a mean of 168.6.  Links to
articles or other websites mentioned in this bulletin can be found
in teleprinter, packet, and Internet versions of 2026 Propagation
Forecast Bulletin ARLP004.

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